Trump impeachment chatter has resurfaced with the new Congress. Prediction markets currently price impeachment probability at 12-18%. This analysis breaks down the actual likelihood using historical data, congressional math, and live market pricing.
The question of whether Donald Trump will be impeached during his second term is one of the most-traded political prediction markets in 2026. With Democrats holding key Senate seats and political tensions remaining high, traders have been actively pricing the probability of an impeachment vote, conviction, and other related outcomes. So what do the markets actually say?
This analysis examines current Will Trump be impeached market pricing across Polymarket, Kalshi, and SezgiX, the historical context, congressional math, and the realistic scenarios. Whether you're a serious trader or following political prediction markets out of curiosity, this guide gives you the data-driven view.
Across major prediction markets, impeachment-related contracts trade at:
Note the gap: introducing impeachment articles (~30%) is far more likely than actual impeachment (~15%), which is far more likely than removal (~5%). This reflects the constitutional reality.
U.S. presidents have faced impeachment four times in modern history:
| President | Year | House Vote | Senate Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Johnson | 1868 | Impeached | Acquitted (1 vote short) |
| Richard Nixon | 1974 | Resigned before vote | — |
| Bill Clinton | 1998 | Impeached | Acquitted (well short) |
| Donald Trump (1st) | 2019 | Impeached | Acquitted (well short) |
| Donald Trump (2nd) | 2021 | Impeached | Acquitted (10 votes short) |
No president has ever been convicted by the Senate. The 67-vote threshold (2/3 majority) is structurally hard to reach when at least one party is loyal to the president.
For impeachment, House needs simple majority. For conviction, Senate needs 67 votes (2/3).
If incontrovertible evidence emerges of high crime (foreign collusion, election interference, financial fraud), Republican senators face pressure. 2024 base rate increase from this: +5-15 percentage points.
If Republicans lose House control in 2026 midterms (probability ~40%), Democrats can impeach. But Senate math remains unchanged.
25th Amendment (incapacitation) bypasses impeachment entirely. Trump turns 80 in 2026.
Pending criminal cases could create impeachment pressure. Tariff cases, Jan 6 follow-ups, etc.
Different platforms often price the same event differently:
| Question | Polymarket | Kalshi | SezgiX |
|---|---|---|---|
| "Trump impeached by year-end" | 14% | 11% | 13% |
| "Trump removed from office" | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| "Articles introduced 2026" | 28% | 32% | 30% |
The 3 percentage point spread between Polymarket and Kalshi on "impeached by year-end" is interesting — represents potential arbitrage opportunity (see our arbitrage guide).
Traditional polls about impeachment ask: "Should Trump be impeached?" — a values question. Prediction markets ask: "Will Trump be impeached?" — a probabilistic prediction. These produce different answers:
The 30-point gap reflects political reality: many who want impeachment recognize it won't happen given Republican Senate control. Markets price reality; polls measure preference.
When markets spike to 30%+ on rumors, sell. Reversion to ~15% baseline is the structural average. (Risk: a real scandal could push higher and stay there.)
Higher base rate (~30%) means easier wins. Articles being introduced is procedurally simpler than actually passing.
Inverse market "Trump completes second term" trades at 75-82%. Pairs with impeachment bets for portfolio risk management.
When Polymarket and Kalshi diverge >3%, take both sides for risk-defined profit.
Track these signals on news monitoring services. Major events typically move markets 2-5 percentage points within 1 hour.
To trade Trump impeachment and related markets on SezgiX:
SezgiX offers comprehensive 2026 election + Trump policy markets in 6 languages.
Impeachment = House voting to charge president. Conviction = Senate trial removing from office. Trump has been impeached twice but never removed.
Constitutional gray area. Self-pardon untested. Doesn't apply to state-level charges or impeachment.
Yes, if Trump resigned or removed. Vance as VP succeeds automatically. This is part of the 25th Amendment + Vance markets discussion. See our Trump 2028 analysis.
Markets typically more accurate. Cook Political Report base impeachment likelihood: ~10%. Markets: 12-18%. Slight divergence reflects different methodologies.
The actual probability of Trump being impeached in 2026 is structurally constrained by Republican Senate control. Markets price this at 12-18%, vs. polls suggesting 45% want it. This gap is the most important insight: markets reflect what will happen, polls reflect what people want.
Take positions on Trump impeachment, midterm outcomes, and 2028 election on SezgiX. Related: Election Odds vs Polls, Trump 2028 Analysis, How to Make Money on Polymarket.
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