Kalshi vs Manifold Markets
Complete guide to choosing between Kalshi and Manifold Markets. Liquidity, fees, KYC, US access, and more.
Kalshi
Prediction MarketKalshi is the first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the US. Accepts bank transfers, requires KYC, US-only access. Strong in macro/political markets.
Manifold Markets
Play MoneyManifold Markets uses "play money" (M$) instead of real currency. No actual financial gain but real forecasting practice. Ideal for learning calibration.
Side-by-Side Comparison
| Feature | Kalshi | Manifold Markets |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Prediction Market | Play Money |
| Founded | 2018 | 2021 |
| US Access | β | β |
| Global Access | β | β |
| KYC | Required | None |
| Currency | USD | M$ (play money) |
| Networks | Bank ACH, Wire, Debit Card | β |
| Min. Bet | $1 | M$1 |
| Spread / Vig | 1-2 cents/contract | 0% |
| Commission | 0% maker | 0% |
| Web3 Wallet | None | None |
| Languages | 1 | 1 |
| Liquidity | Medium | Low |
Kalshi
- β’CFTC-registered (only legal US prediction market)
- β’Bank transfer + credit card accepted
- β’1099 tax form auto-generated for US users
- β’No Web3 wallet needed
- β’Free maker orders
- β’Stable regulatory framework
- β’US residents only (Turkey blocked)
- β’KYC required (SSN + address)
- β’Liquidity 5-7x lower than Polymarket
- β’Max position $25K per event
- β’Limited sports market coverage
Manifold Markets
- β’No real money risk
- β’Anyone can create a market in 30 seconds
- β’1000+ new markets daily
- β’Forecasting calibration practice
- β’Fully permissionless
- β’No real financial gain possible
- β’Low liquidity on most markets
- β’Spam markets common
- β’M$ has no real value
When to Choose Each
Pick: Kalshi
Best for US residents (only legal option). Users preferring bank transfers, institutional macro hedging.
Pick: Manifold Markets
For prediction market learners, forecasters, and those practicing. Hobby/educational purposes.
Practical Verdict
There's no universal "right" answer between Kalshi and Manifold Markets β it depends on use case. For low-friction multi-language access outside the US, SezgiX is the least-friction path. For onchain settlement and maximum liquidity, Polymarket. For US residents, Kalshi is the only legal option.