Sollte zwischen dem Datum der Einrichtung dieses Marktes und dem 31. Dezember 2026, 23:59 Uhr ET, ein natürlicher Vulkanausbruch mit einem Vulkanausbruchindex (VEI) von 6 oder höher stattfinden, wird dieser Markt mit „Ja“ bewertet. Andernfalls wird dieser Markt auf Platz 1 eingestuft. Die primäre Informationsquelle ist das Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/) des Smithsonian-Instituts, insbesondere die Zahl 2026 VEI 6, die derzeit auf der Seite „Eruptions Av“ veröffentlicht wird.

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Piyasanın oluşturulduğu tarih ile 31 Aralık 2026, 23:59 ET arasında Volkanik Patlama İndeksi (VEI) 6 veya daha yüksek olan doğal bir volkanik patlama meydana gelirse bu piyasa "Evet" olarak karar verecektir. Aksi takdirde bu pazar 1. sıraya yerleşecek. Birincil çözüm kaynağı, Smithsonian Enstitüsü Küresel Volkanizma Programı (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), özellikle şu anda "Eruptions Av" başlıklı sayfada yayınlanan 2026 VEI 6 rakamı olacaktır.
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