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This market will resolve to Yes if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No. A general closure refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (Tehran FIR). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Irani
Prices reflect the market's implied probability of each outcome and update as people trade. Settlement is in USDC with 0% commission. Predictions carry risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.