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This market will resolve to Yes if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States governments present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
Prices reflect the market's implied probability of each outcome and update as people trade. Settlement is in USDC with 0% commission. Predictions carry risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.