This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between the market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution for this market will be based on definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transaction from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reports will also be considered.

Platform fee: 2%. Click an option to make a prediction.
Select an option above
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Prices reflect the market's implied probability of each outcome and update as people trade. Settlement is in USDC with 0% commission. Predictions carry risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What SezgiX is, how its short-duration crypto markets work, why event markets resolve against primary sources, and how a single USDC balance covers crypto, politics and sport.
95% of Polymarket users lose money long-term. The 5% who profit follow systematic strategies. This guide reveals the 10 professional methods used by profitable traders — backed by data, not guesswork.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two giants of prediction markets in 2026. One is CFTC-regulated and US-only; the other is global, onchain, and Polygon-based. Which is right for you? This deep comparison covers every dimension.