Bitcoin broke away from AI stocks but now $96 oil could turn its escape into a trap

An important story is making waves across the blockchain ecosystem. Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0. 12 during the second quarter, down from 0. 58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a joint report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode covering data through June 30.

Its correlation with the Nasdaq sat at 0. 21 over the same window, and gold moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin's correlation with the metal climbed to 0.

Market Dynamics

57, and its correlation with silver reached 0. That reversal separates Bitcoin from the AI-driven equity trade that carried much of crypto's price action over the past two years, arriving as the Federal Reserve meets July 28-29, Microsoft and Meta report earnings July 29, and Amazon reports July 30. Hyperscaler capital-spending guidance and the Fed's rate decision arrive in the same week, inside the quarter Bitcoin just entered.

Colin Basco of Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode's analyst team read the current phase the same way, describing a move from correction toward accumulation and pointing to on-chain data showing coins that last transacted within three months sitting at multi-year lows. They also found a climb in dormant supply, which, along with the on-chain data presented, represents a pattern that has historically appeared during accumulation phases. Bitcoin’s Q2 correlation fell to 0.

12 with the S&P 500 while rising to 0. A shared macro channel The report frames the second-quarter gold link by pointing to a firmer dollar and a hawkish Fed that weighed on both Bitcoin and gold, pulling them down together. Bitcoin and gold sold off in tandem because both answer to the same real-rate and liquidity forces that have set Bitcoin's price all year.

Market Impact

That framing changes what an AI-stock selloff can do for Bitcoin heading into the third quarter. Money leaving expensive technology shares helps Bitcoin only when it also pushes Treasury yields lower and weakens the dollar. An unwind driven by inflation, tariffs, or energy costs tightens the same channel that already dragged Bitcoin down in the second quarter, along with gold.

Alphabet raised its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $195 billion-$205 billion on July 22, up from $180 billion-$190 billion, and reported its first negative free-cash-flow quarter, burning $5. The four largest US hyperscalers, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, could collectively spend more on capex than they generate in free cash flow by 2027 if current spending continues. Big Tech is on pace to spend over $700 billion this year on AI infrastructure, and Morgan Stanley projects more than $1 trillion next year.

New York Fed President John Williams tied elevated inflation to tariffs, Middle East-driven energy and commodity costs, and demand for goods and electricity that technology investment has driven, naming semiconductors and power transformers specifically. The Fed's July Monetary Policy Report listed PCE inflation at 4. 1% and core PCE at 3.

This shift continues to shape the digital-asset landscape, with analysts examining its near-term effects.