Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

An important development from the financial markets: Wall Street heads into another holiday-shortened week of trading after a rough few days for the AI trade . The health of the labor market will be a big focus for investors. Within our portfolio, there's a make-or-break earnings report that will determine whether we'll keep the stock around.

The market will also grapple with a flare-up violence in the Middle East, despite the U. and Iran having agreed to a 60-day ceasefire while negotiating a more durable end to the four-month conflict. The weekend escalation comes after tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz picked up last week, leading to a further retreat in oil prices.

Economic Details

benchmark WTI crude on Friday settled below $70 a barrel for the first time since the war started on Feb. International oil standard Brent, meanwhile, is down 22% in June, on pace for its biggest monthly decline since March 2020, at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The dramatic decline in oil prices as the strait reopened had helped ease concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to hike interest rates multiple times later this year to squash inflation.

For investors, the question heading into the trading week is whether the fallout from the attacks — first by Iran on Thursday, followed by retaliatory U.. actions — impacts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. On social media Sunday morning, President Donald Trump threatened Iran with annihilation.

Now, here's a closer look at what to expect from the upcoming economic data releases and Nike's earnings report. Economic updates: Outside of any additional Iran-related developments, this week's major macroeconomic reports can be divided into jobs and manufacturing. On the jobs front, we've got the May JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) out Tuesday, followed by payroll processor ADP's private payrolls report on Wednesday and the government's official nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.

Analyst Views

Those two releases are for the month of June. The JOLTS report is notable because it provides insight into labor market tightness by tracking job openings, hires, quits, layoffs/discharges, and other causes of separation. Nonetheless, it is the least consequential of the three labor-market updates.

At this point, the data is a month old and we already know the net number of jobs added to the economy in May. The answer, which we learned on June 5 , was a stronger-than-expected 172,000 before any revisions. The ADP report on Wednesday is an appetizer for what arrives Thursday.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report is the big one, and we're getting it a day early this month given the market is closed Friday in observance of Independence Day. This is where we get the net additions for private sector and government jobs in June, along with a plethora of data including wage growth, workforce participation, and unemployment rates.

Economists are analysing what the news means for the markets.