On-chain data says Bitcoin price at $60k is cheap, but buyers are still nervous

A notable development has hit the crypto markets. Last night, Bitcoin price was trading at $59,537, down through the $60,000 level that had been the market's line in the sand and nearly $18,000 below its late-May peak of $77,623. Glassnode's on-chain data frames the move as a demand failure, with spot markets leading the selling, ETF investors pulling capital across six consecutive weeks of outflows, and a stronger dollar and rising yields keeping buyers on the sidelines. As of press time, Bitcoin has recovered to around $61,600.

#1 Bitcoin BTC $61,598. 51% (24H) 1D 7D 1M 1Y ALL Market Cap $1. 7B All-Time High $126,198.

Market Dynamics

07 Sectors Layer 1 PoW What drove the break Glassnode tracked Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) falling faster than Futures CVD in the days before the break, with open interest staying subdued and funding staying positive even as price dropped, a profile consistent with real holders reducing exposure. A leverage flush can reverse once liquidations drain the system. Spot-driven selling is harder to clear because holders can keep reducing exposure until conviction buyers absorb the supply.

US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows averaged nearly negative $300 million per day at the worst of the June drawdown, and six consecutive weeks of outflows have now pulled roughly $6 billion from the products. That pace includes the largest single-day redemption of 2026, when BlackRock's IBIT alone shed $388 million on June 2. This correction pushed ETF holders toward the exits, reversing the dip-buying pattern that had cushioned previous drawdowns.

A strong US jobs report in early June led money markets to fully price a Fed rate hike by year-end, a reversal from the rate cuts markets had previously expected. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 12 basis points to 4. 16%, the dollar rose to a one-year high, the Nasdaq 100 dropped roughly 5% in a single session, and a chipmaker gauge fell 10%, pulling Bitcoin lower alongside the broader risk-off trade.

Market Impact

That pressure has compounded through June, with the dollar index climbing to 101. 15 on June 23 and BTC now breaking through $60,000 as the accumulated weight of weak flows and hostile macro conditions takes hold. Glassnode's macro section flagged the dollar's return above its 200-day moving average as a headwind for BTC, noting Bitcoin was trading well below its own 200-day average while equities had recovered above theirs.

Spot selling Spot CVD fell faster than Futures CVD Real holders were reducing exposure, not just leveraged traders being liquidated ETF outflows US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw six straight weeks of outflows, totaling roughly $6B The institutional demand channel that previously supported dips turned into a drag Macro pressure Dollar hit a one-year high, yields rose, Nasdaq and chip stocks sold off BTC traded like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset Weak buyer response Coinbase buying improved, but Binance CVD remained negative US buyers appeared selective, while offshore demand stayed weak Downside hedging One-week and one-month 25-delta skew rose sharply Options traders paid up for protection against another leg lower What Glassnode sees in the data Glassnode places Bitcoin's True Market Mean at $77,000, putting current prices roughly 23% below that level. Glassnode uses the True Market Mean as the threshold separating broader bull and bear market regimes, which means Bitcoin has moved deep into what it describes as structural bear territory: discounted relative to the average cost basis of active investors and sitting within a weak demand regime at the same time. The 90-day average net realized profit/loss is around-$205 million per day, confirming sustained loss realization across the market.

That loss-dominant environment pulls Bitcoin's center of gravity toward the Realized Price near $53,400, well below the True Market Mean at $77,000, making the downside reference point the more operative level for now. The short-term holder cost basis has fallen to $71,400, which Glassnode reads as a constructive early step: newer buyers are accumulating below the broader cyclical mean for the first time, repricing the average entry point of recent participants downward. Glassnode notes that Coinbase Spot CVD has returned to positive territory while Binance's has held negative, pointing to US institutional buyers stepping in at the margin while offshore traders hold back.

Crypto markets are watching this development closely as investors weigh its potential impact on prices.