Our rating, price target and outlook for newly spun off Honeywell Aerospace

Here is a story making headlines in the economy: Honeywell has officially completed the spin-off of its aerospace business, with shareholders receiving one share of the new publicly traded company for every two Honeywell shares. So what exactly do investors now own, and is it worth keeping? Let's start with the basics: Honeywell Aerospace designs and manufactures the critical components that enable planes to fly, navigate, and operate safely.

Think cockpit displays, autopilot, landing and braking systems, among many others, along with technology and software for the defense and space industries. It isn't a pure-play aircraft maker like Boeing or Airbus . Honeywell determined this fast-growing business "had very different strategies compared to the other businesses, very different needs, very different demand profiles," Honeywell Aerospace CEO Jim Currier told CNBC Monday morning.

Economic Details

"And so, an ability to invest, as opposed to doing it across multiple businesses that have disparate strategies and needs, and being able to focus that 100% as a pure-play, is a tremendous value unlock. 1 is strengthening the supply chain, Currier said, which saw severe disruptions during the pandemic. The company has a record backlog — worth roughly $19 billion — which means every improvement to speed up delivery times should translate into earnings growth.

The company doesn't have a problem with demand for its products, but with supply. For fiscal year 2025, ended Dec. 31, the unit delivered sales of $17.

4 billion, 12% organic growth, and $4. 3 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation (EBITDA). 2 is making strategic deals that align with the portfolio and help strengthen the company's top-line growth potential, either by opening new adjacent markets or capturing more of existing ones.

Analyst Views

Both of these strategic objectives, Currier said, are easier to execute as a standalone company. He added that there is significant diversification across industry end markets and within Aerospace's own portfolio, which will reduce volatility in its results. The new management team forecasts 6% to 8% annual organic top-line growth for 2025 to 2030, with adjusted EBIT (earnings before income and taxes) growing faster and free cash flow growing even faster than EBIT.

The strategy to deliver on these forecasts includes executing organic initiatives (more efficient, secure supply chain, cost savings), identifying attractive inorganic opportunities (strategic mergers and acquisitions), and returning cash to shareholders via dividends and opportunistic stock buybacks. Honeywell Aerospace serves 3 key end markets: The largest end market is the commercial aftermarket — products used to upgrade and maintain aging fleets. The end market accounted for 44% of FY25 sales.

As outlined at the company's investor day on June 3, 2026, management expects this to grow at a mid- to high-single-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2030.

Economists are analysing what the news means for the markets.