US Senate has 4 days to save CLARITY Act as odds fall to 30% – Galaxy Digital says

An important story is making waves across the blockchain ecosystem. Galaxy Digital said the Senate has four working days to save the CLARITY Act, as it cut passage odds to 30%. In a July 24 note to clients, the crypto investment firm lowered its estimate for CLARITY Act chances this year from 50%, saying lawmakers need a deal by July 30 to leave enough time for floor proceedings before the August recess. Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital's head of research, said: “ is a strong bill that improves regulation, protects investors, promotes innovation, grows USA the time for incremental negotiations is over.

we need a last-ditch effort. ” The warning came just two days after US Senate Republicans released an updated 616-page combined version of the crypto market-structure bill following months of negotiations. The new text merges measures approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees while adding government ethics restrictions, law-enforcement provisions and changes to the GENIUS Act.

Market Dynamics

CLARITY Act updated draft fails to unlock Democratic votes The combined bill includes several concessions aimed at resolving disputes that had stalled negotiations for months. Its most politically sensitive addition is a new ethics package barring senior federal officials, including the president, vice president, members of Congress and federal judges, from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies while in office. The legislation also expands provisions targeting fraud and illicit finance, strengthens CFTC registration and custody requirements and makes changes to stablecoin oversight under the GENIUS Act.

Those revisions, however, have not secured the Democratic votes Republicans need to advance the legislation. Seven Democrats involved in the negotiations, including Sens. Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper and Raphael Warnock, said that the latest proposal still “falls short.

” The senators called for stronger protections covering government ethics, consumer safeguards, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity, while saying they would continue negotiating with Republicans. That response complicates the vote count at a critical stage. Republicans control 53 Senate seats, but the CLARITY Act would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and advance toward final passage.

Market Impact

Galaxy expects Republican Sens. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to oppose the measure, while Sen. Mitch McConnell has not voted since his June hospitalization.

Galaxy therefore estimates that CLARITY Act supporters may begin with roughly 50 dependable Republican votes, though it stressed that the figure is based on public statements and reporting rather than a confirmed whip count. That leaves the negotiating Democrats central to any path toward 60. The shrinking Senate calendar makes replacing those votes or extracting further concessions increasingly difficult.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said this week that he did not expect lawmakers to finish all pending legislation before the summer break. However, he left open the possibility of starting CLARITY. “I would like to at least get Clarity started,” Thune said.

Crypto markets are watching this development closely as investors weigh its potential impact on prices.