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Le 8 octobre, un accord sur un premier cessez-le-feu (phase 1) a été annoncé, constituant un arrêt des combats, un retrait israélien réservé à une ligne jaune, des échanges de prisonniers, une augmentation des frais et la libération des otages. Une deuxième phase de l'accord, ou à accompagner, devrait porter sur la poursuite du retrait israélien, le désarmement du Hamas et l'organisation d'une nouvelle sécurité et d'une nouvelle gouvernance à Gaza. Ce marché se décidera à « oui » si un accord officiel pour la deuxième phase du cessez-le-feu Israël-Hamas, dit comme une menace d'accord mutuel, est dissous entre Israël et le Hamas d'ici le 31 décembre 2026, 23h59 ET. Ce marché sera résolu à No. Si l'accord est officiellement accessible avant la date de résolution, ce marché se décidera à « Oui »
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On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a yellow line, prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamass disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the IsraelHamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a second phase ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized me
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