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Ce marché sera résolu à Oui si l'Iran correspond à l'Ukraine par une action militaire qualifiée entre la création du marché et la date limite, l'heure de Kiev. Ce marché sera résolu à No. Une action militaire qualifiée désigne un avion ou un missile sol-sol lancé par l'Iran contre l'Ukraine. Un avion comprend des bombes de frappe, des missiles air-sol et des drones lancés par l'air. Un missile sol-sol comprend des drones d'attaque à sens unique et des missiles sol-sol tels que des missiles de croisière ou des missiles balistiques. Les actions suivantes ne combinent pas une action militaire admissible : missiles sol-air; Feu de petites armes; Incursions au sol; les cyberopérations; les tirs de canon et d'artillerie; Des obusiers, des pièces d'artillerie, des collations et de l'artillerie de fusée (p. ex.). g
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This market will resolve to Yes if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been execut
Prices reflect the market's implied probability of each outcome and update as people trade. Settlement is in USDC with a transparent 2% platform fee shown before confirmation. Predictions carry risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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