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Questo mercato avrà esito “Sì” se Israele intraprenderà un’azione militare qualificante contro la Grande Beirut entro la data specificata, alle 23:59 ora legale israeliana (IDT). In caso contrario, questo mercato avrà esito “No”. Per «azione militare qualificante» si intende un attacco aereo o un attacco con missili terra-terra, sferrato da Israele, che colpisca direttamente la Grande Beirut. Un attacco aereo comprende bombe, missili aria-terra e droni lanciati dall’aria. Un attacco con missili terra-terra comprende droni da attacco monouso e missili terra-terra quali missili da crociera o balistici. Le seguenti azioni non costituiscono un’azione militare qualificante: Munizioni distrutte o intercettate prima dell’impatto; Attacchi con missili terra-aria; Fuoco di armi leggere; Incursioni terrestri; Operazioni informatiche; Fuoco di artiglieria navale e artiglieria
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This market will resolve to Yes if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to No. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Prices reflect the market's implied probability of each outcome and update as people trade. Settlement is in USDC with a transparent 2% platform fee shown before confirmation. Predictions carry risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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