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On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to Yes if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example,
I prezzi riflettono le probabilità implicite e cambiano con le operazioni. Il regolamento avviene in USDC. La commissione applicabile è mostrata prima della conferma. Le previsioni comportano rischi.
What SezgiX is, how its short-duration crypto markets work, why event markets resolve against primary sources, and how a single USDC balance covers crypto, politics and sport.
A data-driven look at the Trump 2028 odds — the Republican nomination, the general election, and the family names also in the race. Track live, market-implied probabilities.
Trump impeachment chatter has resurfaced with the new Congress. Prediction markets currently price impeachment probability at 12-18%. This analysis breaks down the actual likelihood using historical data, congressional math, and live market pricing.