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This market will settle to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or submits an official notice of withdrawal to NATO by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will settle to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal in accordance with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country’s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to result in a “Yes” resolution for this market. That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a “Yes” resolution. The resolution will be based on official information from the relevant government and NATO; however, a consensus of credible reports may also be used.
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