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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a Yes resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prices reflect the market's implied probability of each outcome and update as people trade. Settlement is in USDC with 0% commission. Predictions carry risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.
What SezgiX is, how its short-duration crypto markets work, why event markets resolve against primary sources, and how a single USDC balance covers crypto, politics and sport.
A data-driven look at the Trump 2028 odds — the Republican nomination, the general election, and the family names also in the race. Track live, market-implied probabilities.
Trump impeachment chatter has resurfaced with the new Congress. Prediction markets currently price impeachment probability at 12-18%. This analysis breaks down the actual likelihood using historical data, congressional math, and live market pricing.