Bowen: Trump needs this war to end but Iran is not backing down

Here is the latest breaking news from around the world: Bowen: Trump needs this war to end but Iran is not backing downJust now Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleJeremy BowenInternational editorGetty ImagesTalks between Iran and the US continue but Tehran has publicly refused to cede groundThe United States and Iran have both signalled that they would prefer not to go back to the war that has been on hold since the ceasefire was announced on 8 April. Neither side has allowed the steady drumbeat of military exchanges between them to end the talks being mediated by Pakistan, Qatar and others. The United States still has powerful naval and air forces within striking distance of Iran.

It is safe to assume that the Iranian regime will have kept its forces on high alert and will be using the ceasefire to re-organise and repair damage done by the US and Israel. Armed tension in the area in and around the Gulf opens up a clear risk for both sides of miscalculation and misperception. The US is trying to keep the pressure on the Tehran regime to make concessions by demonstrating that they are close by and capable of causing great damage.

The Details

The Iranians are reminding the US that their determination to resist is undiminished and, if necessary, they will attack American bases and the wider infrastructure of the Arab gulf. The first objectives on what would be a long and perhaps unreachable road to a wider deal between the US and Iran is a continuation of the ceasefire and an agreement on a "memorandum of understanding" on the agenda of more talks between them. Getting to that is proving difficult.

The Iranians will require a price, perhaps in the form of sanctions relief or unfrozen assets to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which looks to be a prerequisite for serious negotiations. Only a trickle of ships is getting through what had been a vital and busy waterway. Iran closed it after it was attacked by the US and Israel on 28 February.

ReutersShipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground almost to a halt Saudi Arabia is piping some oil to its Red Sea ports, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a pipeline to terminals on its small patch of coast that faces the Gulf of Oman, beyond the Strait of Hormuz. But the rest of the world has still lost around 20% of its usual supply of oil and gas, as well as other vital exports. Keeping the Strait closed spells disaster for much of the world economy.

What Experts Say

The US no longer depends on Gulf oil, but petrol prices in America are still set by the global oil market. Donald Trump is in a bind. He is enmeshed in the consequences of the gross blunder he made by going to war assuming an easy victory.

The US president and his close ally Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel fatally underestimated the degree to which the Islamic regime was prepared to resist and ride out their attacks. Trump has no easy way out and the Iranian regime wants to keep it that way. He needs to get the Strait reopened.

The story has become one of the most prominent items on the global agenda.