El Niño under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. El Niño under way and threatens weather extremes, scientists say13 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleMatt McGrath ,Environment correspondent ,Simon King ,Lead Weather PresenterandMark Poynting ,Climate reporterEPA/ShutterstockEl Niño - the natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures - has officially begun, US scientists say. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Niño conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months. Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called "super" El Niño, and even be among the strongest ever recorded.

Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year - most likely in 2027 - with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year. This announcement by NOAA is not a surprise as forecasters have expected this warming phase since the cooler "sister" pattern, La Niña, faded at the end of last year. Sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific have now passed the 0.

The Details

5C-above-average threshold that US scientists use to define an El Niño event. NOAA has also seen the winds above the equatorial Pacific begin to shift - a sign that the atmosphere is now responding to the warmer ocean, not just the ocean warming on its own. What has surprised the researchers is how confident the computer models already are about its strength.

El Niño's intensity is measured by how far sea surface temperatures rise above average in a key zone of the Pacific. A strong event is defined as more than 1. 5C above average; a very strong one above 2C.

In its June outlook, NOAA put the odds of a very strong El Niño at 63%, which it says "would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950". Some of the latest US and European (ECMWF) models go further, showing temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially climbing more than 3C above average by the end of the year. What is El Niño and why could it mean record temperatures?

What Experts Say

The bigger concern is that all this is happening on an already much hotter planet. "We do need to worry about the impacts," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office. "The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming.

"This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change. "A very strong El Niño typically lifts global air temperatures by around 0. 2C, releasing heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere.

That extra blast now lands on a world that is already setting records. The year 2024 - the warmest on record - was boosted by an El Niño that was not even especially strong.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.