Fall in official Ebola numbers appears to be good news but it's not that simple

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. Fall in official Ebola numbers appears to be good news but it's not that simple56 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleFergus WalshMedical editorEPAMedical staff must wear protective equipment when treating people with Ebola because it spread through bodily fluidsThe latest Ebola figures from the Democratic Republic of Congo appear to offer some hope after the number of cases was dramatically scaled back. At one point the authorities were talking of more than 1,000 suspected cases and nearly 250 suspected deaths. They are now reporting around 380 confirmed cases in DR Congo, including 60 deaths, plus another 15 confirmed cases and one death in neighbouring Uganda.

However, the key difference is that the authorities are now talking about confirmed, rather than suspected, cases as before. So it would be a mistake to assume that the fall in numbers means the outbreak is suddenly less dangerous. The decline reflects better data, as laboratories were able to rule out many patients who had fever but were suffering from other conditions such as malaria which is common in DR Congo.

The Details

The director general of the World Health Organization (WHO) Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said the outbreak had a "big head start" but response teams are now "catching up". However, one of the biggest concerns remains contact tracing. Only about 45% of people in direct contact with an Ebola patient are currently being followed up, partly because the epicentre of the latest outbreak is in an area hit by conflict.

The WHO says at least 90% of contacts must be traced to bring an outbreak under control. How health workers in DR Congo are treating Ebola and staying safeWhat is Ebola and why is stopping the latest outbreak so difficult? Three Ebola vaccines in development amid growing outbreak fearsAnother challenge is mistrust among some communities.

An Ebola burial team was reportedly attacked this week in South Kivu province, forcing responders to abandon a coffin and raising fears of further transmission. Traditional burial practices often involve washing and touching the body, and funerals typically draw large crowds - all high risk for Ebola, which is spread from one person to another by contact with infected bodily fluids. Tedros said building trust with communities was critical to bringing the outbreak under control.

What Experts Say

The Ebola outbreak is concentrated in three provinces of eastern DR Congo, an area roughly the size of the United Kingdom, much of it rural, remote and difficult to reach. It is also unfolding in one of the most volatile regions in Africa, with many armed groups operating. The latest outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo species of Ebola, which has only occurred twice before.

Because it is much rarer than other types of Ebola, there is no vaccine or proven treatment, although various teams are trying to develop them.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.