More heatwaves likely as warmer-than-normal summer forecast

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. More heatwaves likely as warmer-than-normal summer forecastImage source, GettyBySimon King Lead Weather PresenterPublished7 minutes agoThe UK could see a warmer-than-average summer with the potential for more heatwaves, according to latest forecasts. The Met Office released its three-month summer outlook on 1 June - the first day of meteorological summer - citing higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during the month. And for the whole summer - which runs through to the end of August – the outlook suggests "an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts".

It comes after a late spring heatwave saw temperature records shattered across the UK. A new all-time May record of 35. 1C was set in Kew Gardens, London, replacing the previous record of 32.

The Details

Yellow and amber heat health alerts were also issued for the first time this year. Now, long-range forecasts from the Met Office and MeteoGroup – the latter being providers of Weather data - suggest the summer ahead will bring the risk of additional heatwaves. A "few notable high temperature spikes" are also possible according to MeteoGroup.

They also go on to say that "above-average temperatures" are expected for each of the months of June, July and August, and "significant bursts" of heat are expected in the UK, and across Europe. But, according to the Met Office, the higher than average temperatures forecast comes as having a hotter summer is now twice as likely than the reference averaging period of 1991-2020, consistent with our warming climate. Will drought conditions return?

Image source, GettyImage caption, Water levels dropped signifcantly in reservoirs across England in September 2025 after a dry spring and summer. There is less certainty around summer rainfall totals, with forecasters disagreeing on how the season will play out. MeteoGroup predicts a drier period while the Met Office suggests an average to perhaps even wetter-than-normal season.

What Experts Say

The MeteoGroup long-range forecast has precipitation below average overall, especially through June and July across England and Wales. The wettest areas are more likely towards Scotland where rainfall could be around average. Meanwhile, the Met Office says "the chance of a wet season are slighly higher than normal".

While these long-range predictions give an idea of overall UK conditions over the three-month period of summer, in recent years we have seen more variability in rainfall patterns. In 2025, while the UK average summer rainfall was 84%, northern and western areas of the UK were much wetter than average while central, eastern and southern parts were much drier with less than half of expected rainfall. Droughts were declared across much of England in 2025 following a very dry spring, and hosepipe bans followed in the summer after demand for water increased.

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