Most world cup traders won less than $5 on Polymarket while FIVE wallets walked away with millions

Here is the latest from the digital-asset markets: Spain’s second World Cup title settled the largest sports-related winner markets yet on Polymarket and Kalshi, closing a tournament that brought prediction trading closer to the center of the global sports-betting business. Available data from the two leading platforms show that they recorded about $5. 57 billion in cumulative volume on contracts tied to the tournament champion.

Polymarket’s market generated roughly $4. 28 billion, while Kalshi’s reached about $1. Meanwhile, that activity formed part of a wider surge across the sector as H2 Gambling Capital estimated that prediction markets accounted for about 27% of legal US sports-betting volume during the tournament, up from roughly 9% at the beginning of the year.

Market Dynamics

Prediction Markets World Cup Volume as a Percentage of US Sports Bet (Source: H2 Gambling Capital) This high volume can be attributed to the World Cup tournament giving the platforms a steady sequence of events that elections and major policy decisions rarely provide. Its expanded format featured 48 teams and 104 matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico, allowing operators to list contracts on match results, team advancement, total goals, individual scorers and tournament awards. The breadth and frequency of those markets helped turn the competition into a recurring trading product rather than a single championship wager, as each round created new opportunities for users to enter, exit or shift positions, drawing liquidity and attention back to the platforms throughout the tournament.

A small group captured most of the profits However, the market’s broad participation produced sharply uneven financial results, with most addresses recording small gains or losses while a fraction of traders accounted for much of the money made or surrendered. A Dune Analytics review of 194,422 addresses that traded Polymarket’s World Cup winner contract found that 129,649, or 66. 7%, finished in the red.

The remaining 64,773 addresses recorded profits. For most participants, the amounts involved were limited. More than 114,000 addresses lost less than $100, averaging $9.

Market Impact

34 each, while nearly 58,000 profitable addresses earned an average of just $4. However, the largest positions produced a different outcome as 369 wallets finished between $5,000 and $10,000 in the red, while 375 addresses lost between $10,000 and $100,000. Additionally, 43 addresses lost more than $100,000 apiece, generating a combined deficit of $15.

19 million and an average loss of about $353,000. These 43 addresses represented about 0. 02% of the sample but accounted for roughly 40% of the $37.

63 million in total losses. Meanwhile, the profit margin also showed significant concentration at the upper end. Just 54 addresses, representing less than 0.

This shift continues to shape the digital-asset landscape, with analysts examining its near-term effects.