Race for French presidency sees ex-PM Philippe as early favourite to beat populists

Here is the latest breaking news from around the world: Race for French presidency sees ex-PM Philippe as early favourite to beat populists2 hours ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleHugh Schofieldin ParisGetty ImagesEdouard Philippe (L) is among the candidates vying for the presidency along with Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc MélenchonA year to go until France chooses its next president, the big question is who can save the election from being a battle of the extremes. For now, and perhaps only for now, the answer is pretty clear. It is President Emmanuel Macron's former prime minister, Edouard Philippe.

Latest opinion polls concur that the 55-year-old centre-right politician is the only figure capable of beating a hard-right candidate in round two of the vote next May, whether that is Marine Le Pen or her young deputy Jordan Bardella. In any other polled scenario, the other candidate would lose and France would have a populist-right head of state. Philippe is also best placed to keep the hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon out of the run-off, thus eliminating the scenario - a nightmare for business and France's European partners - of a straight choice between hard left and hard right.

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For supporters of Philippe, who heads the small Horizons party, all this should justify his emergence in the coming months as the natural candidate of the French centre-right and set him on course for victory. They expect other contenders from the same political space to acknowledge Philippe's lead towards the end of the year and step diplomatically from the race. Those rivals include the former centrist prime minister, Gabriel Attal of Renaissance who declared his candidacy on Friday, and Bruno Retailleau of the conservative Republicans.

via Getty ImagesCentrist Gabriel Attal threw his hat into the presidential ring on FridayIn the peculiar French system of voting, everyone knows that having too many players in the multi-candidate first round of the presidential election next April amounts to political suicide. With several candidates vying for the same slice of the electorate, the vote is divided up and all fall below the qualification mark for round two – in which only the two leaders from round one take part. This was already true in the old politics, where Socialists and Gaullists used to battle it out.

How much more true is it now, when historic formations of right and left are being eclipsed by populist forces on their flanks? via Getty ImagesBruno Retailleau is challenging for the presidency for the conservative RepublicansSo, with a year to go, Edouard Philippe is cautiously moving his campaign into gear – mindful that being an early favourite in the presidential race is as often a hindrance as an asset. In a meeting in Reims east of Paris earlier this month, he announced his three campaign directors as well as a distinctly Gaullist election slogan – France Libre (Free France).

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.