Robinhood’s expanding crypto bet meets a faster-moving prediction market boom

An important story is making waves across the blockchain ecosystem. Robinhood is pushing deeper into crypto infrastructure with the launch of its own blockchain network, tokenized stocks and decentralized lending products, even as one of its fastest-growing revenue opportunities may be forming outside crypto. On July 1, the brokerage launched the public mainnet for Robinhood Chain at a London event, marking its most direct move yet into onchain financial infrastructure. The Ethereum layer-2 network, built on Arbitrum, is designed to support tokenized real-world assets, decentralized finance applications and trading activity tied to Robinhood’s expanding global product suite.

The launch gives Robinhood more control over the infrastructure behind its tokenized stock ambitions. Stock Tokens are now available through Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, though access varies by jurisdiction. The company said eligible users will be able to trade tokenized equities around the clock and use them across decentralized finance applications, including lending pools and collateral for trading.

Market Dynamics

Robinhood also introduced Robinhood Earn, a decentralized lending product that allows eligible US users to lend USDG, its dollar-backed stablecoin, through a self-custody wallet. The product offers an estimated 7% annual percentage yield and uses lending infrastructure powered by Morpho, with insurance procured through Lloyd’s of London and RELM for covered losses tied to cyber or smart contract exploits. The crypto rollout came alongside a broader slate of expansion.

The company revealed plans to launch crypto trading in the UK, to make its services available in Canada following its acquisition of WonderFi, and to have received a capital markets services license in Singapore. These announcements show how Robinhood is trying to turn a retail brokerage into a global trading venue spanning stocks, crypto, tokenized assets, derivatives, decentralized finance and artificial intelligence tools. Yet the company’s next major revenue surprise may come from event contracts, the prediction-market products that allow users to trade on outcomes in politics, sports, economics and other events.

A crypto launch lands as event contracts accelerate Robinhood’s blockchain push gives the company a clearer foundation for its tokenized asset strategy at a time when prediction markets are beginning to challenge crypto trading as a source of transaction revenue. Artemis analyst Crossroads suggests Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue could exceed its crypto revenue as early as the second quarter. Robinhood Prediction Market Volume (Source: Artemis) The report cited about 12.

Market Impact

3 billion event contracts traded through June 25. At a typical take rate of 1 cent per contract, that would imply at least $123 million in quarterly revenue before the final days of June are included. That figure would put prediction markets within reach of Robinhood’s first-quarter crypto transaction revenue, when the company reported $134 million.

While crypto volumes showed some improvement in June, they remained under pressure compared with earlier periods, with institutional activity carrying lower take rates than retail trading. The comparison is not final until Robinhood reports second-quarter earnings. But the estimates point to a shift in how investors may need to view the company.

Indeed, Robinhood has long been treated in part as a retail crypto proxy because trading booms in Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and other digital assets have flowed into its results. A larger contribution from event contracts would make that relationship less direct. Prediction markets have also grown despite legal and regulatory challenges.

Crypto markets are watching this development closely as investors weigh its potential impact on prices.