Russia ramps up threats against Ukraine. What does that say about the war?

Here is the latest breaking news from around the world: Russia ramps up threats against Ukraine. What does that say about the war? 30 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleJonathan BealeDefence correspondent, KyivBBC/Lee DurantRussia carried out major strikes against Kyiv over the weekend and has threatened moreMoscow has stepped up its threats to Ukraine, warning of "consistent, systematic strikes on Kyiv targeting its military industrial complex".

It has also warned foreign citizens and diplomatic staff to leave the city "as soon as possible". It sounds ominous, but does it signal something new? By ramping up its rhetoric, is Russia also about to intensify its war?

The Details

In one sense, such threats are nothing new. Ukraine's foreign ministry points out that Russia has been targeting towns and cities every week for more than four years now. It assesses "the overall level of security threats posed by Russia to Kyiv and other cities remains the same as previous months and years".

What is new is the language used by the Kremlin to justify such attacks – and it is related to one specific incident. Moscow has accused Ukraine of deliberately killing 21 students in a strike last week on Starobilsk in Luhansk province. Ukraine still insists it hit a military facility in Russian-occupied territory.

But Moscow is presenting the incident, and what it claims to be a deliberate attack on civilians, as a legitimate reason for retaliation. /Lee DurantThe Ukrainian capital has been experiencing regular attacks since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 In the past, such attacks have rarely required such an explanation. Nor has Russia shown much remorse about causing its own civilian casualties in Ukraine.

What Experts Say

Any retaliation on Kyiv would only likely kill more. But Ivan Stupak, a military analyst and former Ukrainian intelligence officer, believes it is a sign that Moscow is struggling to control the narrative of the war. He says: "When you have problems with the economy and Russian society, then there's pressure for revenge.

"The rhetoric may well reflect growing frustration and anger in the Kremlin, but Andrii Kovalenko of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council believes there are other reasons for the threats, unrelated to the Luhansk attack. The first is Russia's lack of success on the battlefield, he says, adding: "In the absence of strategic results on the front, the Kremlin is trying to exert psychological pressure on Ukraine. "He believes that pressure is also being applied to Ukraine's allies, with Moscow warning diplomatic staff to leave Kyiv.

Strong European support for Ukraine, both politically and military, has long been seen in the Kremlin as a major obstacle to its war aims. Thirdly, Kovalenko says, there "is an attempt to divert attention from Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian territory and its own ability to defend its own territories, including Moscow". In short, the war - now entering its fifth year - is currently not going in the right direction for Moscow.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.