Three ways Cuba crisis could play out after US indictment of Raúl Castro

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. Three ways Cuba crisis could play out after US indictment of Raúl Castro21 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleBernd Debusmann JrWhite House reporter Getty ImagesMany Cuban exiles in the US hope the Havana government is toppledThe US has charged Cuba's 94-year-old former president, Raúl Castro, with murder - stoking speculation that Havana could be next on Washington's regime-change list. Amid a maximum pressure campaign that has led to the most significant fuel and energy shortages in Cuba in decades, a steady chorus of US officials is calling for the end of the island's 66-year-old Communist government. While President Donald Trump has said that he believes no "escalation" will be necessary, the White House has also vowed it would not tolerate a "rogue state" 90 miles (144km) from US shores.

What comes next is anyone's guess: economic collapse, domestic turmoil or US military intervention. Here's three possible ways it could play out. US could seize Raul CastroThe indictment of Castro on charges stemming from the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft by Cuban fighter jets prompted immediate speculation that US forces could launch an operation to capture him and spirit him to an American courtroom.

The Details

Such an operation is not without precedent. In January, US commandos launched a lightning-fast operation in Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro - a longtime ally of Cuba - and bring him to New York to face drug and weapons charges. In 1989, a much larger operation - Operation Just Cause - saw thousands of US troops invade Panama to topple and detain the country's then-leader, Manuel Noriega.

President Trump has so far brushed off questions about whether he is eying a similar operation in Cuba. Several US lawmakers, however, have openly called for a similar mission to be carried out. "We shouldn't take anything off the table," Florida Senator Rick Scott told reporters.

" same thing that happened to Maduro should happen to Raul Castro. "Experts say that, from a military perspective, a move to capture Castro is feasible - but that it would be fraught with risks and complications, including his advanced age and potential resistance. "In some ways it might be easier to extract him," said Adam Isacson, a regional expert with the Washington Office on Latin America, an NGO.

What Experts Say

"His symbolic value means he's very heavily guarded, but it's certainly possible. " But removing Castro - who stepped down as president in 2018 - may not have a significant impact on the wider Cuban government, where he has for years now been largely seen as an influential figurehead. "I don't think it would affect the power structure in Cuba very much anymore.

He's 94," Isacson said. "The dynasty of the Castro family is influential, but not central to what they built. " "But for domestic political reasons, it would probably be a hit," he added.

"They'd love to humiliate the Castros and get one of the original revolutionaries from 1959 behind bars.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.