Bitcoin price to get a macro boost as BofA says tariff refunds could cool inflation

A notable development has hit the crypto markets. The tariff refund trade has moved from court hypothesis to Treasury accounting, and the macro picture looks more consequential than traders initially framed it, with traders increasingly watching whether the process can improve Bitcoin price's macro outlook. The US Customs and Border Protection had processed $35. 46 billion in tariff refunds as of May 11, including interest, validating 86,874 applications covering 15.

1 million entries and finalizing 8. Up to $166 billion in IEEPA tariff collections qualify for repayment, money owed to more than 330,000 importers across roughly 53 million entries, with a Supreme Court ruling having stripped the President Donald Trump administration's authority to impose them. The processed pool already represents about 21% of the potential maximum, and the rest of the eligible volume is large enough to move both reserves and pricing behavior if payments proceed quickly.

Market Dynamics

Most Bitcoin framing around the refund pool follows a channel in which money leaves the Treasury General Account, bank reserves rise, and risk assets catch a bid. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's balance sheet explanation confirms the accounting, noting that when the Treasury makes a payment, the Fed debits the TGA and credits the recipient bank's reserve account, so refund disbursements paid from existing cash balances push reserves higher without any new issuance. 8 billion on May 15, against reserve balances of approximately $3.

10 trillion for the week ended May 13. A full $166 billion payout would equal roughly 5. 3% of current reserves.

That liquidity shift matters because Bitcoin liquidity conditions remain tightly linked to reserve balances and Treasury cash movements. Processed tariff refunds of $35. 46 billion represent 21% of the $166 billion eligible pool against a $758.

Market Impact

8 billion Treasury General Account. BofA's public tariff commentary says the effective US tariff rate peaked at 11. 3% in October 2025, fell to 8.

7% in March 2026, and the bank expects it to settle between 6% and 8% by year-end. The bank reads the lower tariff path as a supply-chain event, in which firms may delay future price increases, and the pricing benefit flows to corporate margins rather than to consumer rebates. Government refunds flow directly to importers, and the disinflationary channel runs through importers, supply chains, and future CPI prints.

Why both channels need to work for Bitcoin price Persistent inflation pressure and elevated Fed rates continue to shape the broader outlook for Bitcoin's price rally. 8% year over year, and core CPI rose 2. 8%, while energy prices climbed 17.

Crypto markets are watching this development closely as investors weigh its potential impact on prices.