Bitcoin starts H2 in a bear market as ETFs, Fed and Strategy set $100K-or-$50K test

A notable development has hit the crypto markets. Bitcoin is entering the second half of the year with its support system, which powered its last rally, under pressure. Data from shows that the largest digital asset has fallen about 33% this year and more than 50% from its October record high above $126,000, trading near its weakest level since September 2024 at around $58,600 as of press time. This price action has pushed Bitcoin below key long-term trend levels and made the first half of 2026 its worst start to a year since the 2022 crypto crisis.

Bitcoin Price Performance in H1 2026 (Source: Tradingview) That makes July a test of whether the market is nearing exhaustion or beginning another leg lower. The next four weeks bring three pressure points: whether exchange-traded fund outflows slow, whether the Federal Reserve signals another rate increase, and whether Congress can move the CLARITY Act before the August recess. The outcome could determine whether Bitcoin rebounds toward $100,000 by year-end or retests the $50,000 to $55,000 area, which analysts now see as the next major structural support zone.

Market Dynamics

ETF demand has flipped from cushion to pressure ETF flows have become one of the clearest signs that Bitcoin’s institutional support is weakening. Data from SoSoValue show US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted about $4. 5 billion in net outflows in June, their worst month since the products began trading in January 2024.

BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for most of the withdrawals, underscoring how the largest regulated demand channel for Bitcoin has become a source of sustained selling pressure. The weakness was spread across the month rather than concentrated in a single trading session. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded only three days of inflows in June, with those positive days totaling less than $100 million combined.

Bitcoin ETFs Daily Flows in June 2026 (Source: SoSoValue) The rest of the month was dominated by redemptions, including several sessions in which hundreds of millions of dollars left the products. That pressure followed Bitcoin below the $60,000 area and challenged one of the central assumptions behind the ETF-led phase of the market: that regulated funds would provide a steadier base of demand during drawdowns. Ecoinometrics, a Bitcoin analysis platform, said the decline was consistent with the pressure visible in fund flows, noting that: “Bitcoin below $60K shouldn’t surprise anyone watching ETF flows.

Market Impact

The last 30 days have seen some spectacular days of selling. But they’ve really been defined by relentless selling. ” The firm said nearly every recent trading session had seen capital exit spot Bitcoin ETFs, creating one of the most persistent stretches of outflows since the funds launched.

It added: “That’s the kind of demand shock that keeps pushing prices lower. ” However, the withdrawals do not necessarily point to panic selling. This is because many ETF investors entered the market at lower prices and may be taking profits or cutting exposure after Bitcoin’s sharp advance last year.

But the persistence of the outflows shows that institutional investors are not yet stepping in to absorb the decline. That marks a clear shift from the earlier stage of the cycle, when ETF demand helped pull Bitcoin deeper into mainstream portfolios and supplied a visible stream of new capital. In June, the same structure showed how quickly large allocators can retreat when prices weaken, macro conditions tighten and momentum fades.

This shift continues to shape the digital-asset landscape, with analysts examining its near-term effects.