Is UK facing drought for second summer in a row?

A significant story is unfolding on the international scene. Is UK facing drought for second summer in a row? Image source, Weather Watcher / alpaca ladyImage caption, Dry, cracked earth is already evident in some parts of the UK, like here in CambridgeshireBySarah Keith-LucasLead weather presenterPublished17 minutes agoSummer so far has been exceptionally hot and dry across much of the UK, with three widespread heatwaves and the longest run of dry days in central England since 1995. England, Wales and eastern Scotland have been the driest areas over recent weeks, and this follows a very dry spring in similar regions.

Very little rainfall is forecast through this week for most places, with only a few light showers possible, mainly close to coasts. As we head through the second half of summer, what are the longer range predictions, and are we heading into drought for the second summer in a row? Rainfall so far this summer has been below average across the UK as a whole, but there has been large regional contrast.

The Details

Up to the middle of summer - 15 July - parts of eastern and north-eastern England had received just 26% of their total expected summer rainfall. Areas of northern and western Scotland had more than average for the first half of the summer, though. For central England it has been the longest dry spell since 1995.

Wisley in Surrey has seen 33 consecutive dry days. Comparisons are being made with last summer, when drought was declared across much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland. It officially ended just four months ago.

This year, drought has not developed as quickly because heavy rainfall recharged our aquifers, rivers and reservoirs during a very wet autumn and winter. However, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology says flash droughts, external with a sudden transition between wet and dry conditions are "likely to happen more often, and be more intense". Image caption, The week ahead brings very little rainfall to most places away from north-west ScotlandWhen and where is any rain on the way?

What Experts Say

Image source, Mike KempImage caption, Grass has turned brown and parched in many locations around the UKHigh pressure stays in charge for the rest of this week, meaning no significant rainfall for at least the next five days. We could see a few midweek showers especially near coasts in south-east England and East Anglia, as well as northern Scotland. Through the weekend, rain-bearing weather fronts will try to move in from the north-west, but most of this rain is likely to fall across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland.

As the fronts push south, they may fizzle out, meaning little or no rainfall for the places that need it most, in the south and east. As for the rest of summer, it is too far off to know for sure, but there are hints that things could stay mainly dry and warm, especially in the south, although summer thunderstorms are possible. Keep up to date with the latest forecast on the Weather website or app.

How will water industry and agriculture be affected?

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.