The US and Iran have agreed a deal. How soon could things go back to normal?

A significant story is unfolding on the international scene. The US and Iran have agreed a deal. How soon could things go back to normal? 42 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleRachel Clun ,Faarea MasudandJonathan Josephs ,Business reportersReutersMore than two months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to bring about a more long-term end to hostilities.

The Middle East crisis sent global oil prices soaring as the conflict effectively closed one of the world's key water transport routes for oil, liquid natural gas and other essential commodities, limiting global supplies. But experts warn a return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take time, and the impact of the war will continue to affect the global economy for potentially months to come. How quickly will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?

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" US President Donald Trump said in a social media post heralding the agreement, which he said would include the reopening of the strait to commercial shipping. Verify has been checking ship-tracking data which appears to show that traffic levels remain low in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the announcement. According to ship tracking website MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the waterway since Sunday - a bulk carrier and a tanker.

The strait has been closed to most shipping traffic since 28 February, with only limited numbers of vessels friendly to Iran able to pass through. About 200 vessels have been stuck in the gulf, with the risk of sea mines or drone strikes driving up the danger to crews and preventing safe passage. Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the latest deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement".

Last time the US and Iran seemed close to a deal, Capital Economics had said it would likely "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to return to pre-war levels". "Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain. "Even before the agreement, during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were largely reluctant to try to move their vessels out of the strait – and getting those vessels out will be their first focus.

Given the protracted nature of the conflict, and the shifting messages from both sides, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime and former Maersk director Lars Jensen told the in May that it was most likely that shipping firms would take a "very cautious and hesitant" approach to sending any more vessels into the gulf for the foreseeable future.

The story has become one of the most prominent items on the global agenda.