Premier League predictions - how accurate were Sport pundits?

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. Premier League predictions - how accurate were Sport pundits? ByChris BevanBBC Sport journalistPublished1 hour agoLast summer, 33 TV and radio pundits made their predictions for the Premier League season, picking their champions and their top four. Twenty-one of them thought Liverpool would win it, and none of them got more than two clubs right.

Although six pundits correctly picked Arsenal as champions, and everyone had the Gunners and Manchester City in their top four, Matthew Upson was the only one to have the top two in the order they actually finished. Martin Keown, Thomas Hitzlsperger, Sue Smith, Leon Osman and Jermaine Beckford were the other pundits who also backed Mikel Arteta's side. Everyone else was wrong - but they were not alone there.

The Details

Opta's 'supercomputer' can tell you your team's exact chances of winning any competition at any given time. It is actually a complex algorithm that uses a model based on betting market odds and the sports analytics company's own 'Power Rankings', which are calculated using past results. Last summer, before a ball was kicked, it simulated the outcome of all 380 Premier League games 10,000 times...

and calculated that Liverpool were favourites, with a 28. 5% chance of retaining their title. On the upside, Opta did have Aston Villa finishing fifth, but then it also thought Manchester United would end up 12th.

AI did not exactly excel, either. It's prediction was generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat - we simply asked the tool to 'predict the Premier League table for the 2025-26 season', and it crowned City as champions. Not many people reading this can truthfully say they knew much better, though.

What Experts Say

Thousands of you made your predictions on the website last August for the way the table would finish and, collectively, you voted that Liverpool would win. Arsenal, City and Chelsea completed your top four. Better luck next time, everyone.

You can see everyone's pre-season top-four predictions in full, below. These predictions were made on the basis of how each squad shaped up on Thursday, 14 August, more than two weeks before the transfer window closed. The overall predicted ranking, using all 35 predictions was:Liverpool (121 points)Arsenal (90)Man City (83)Chelsea (46)(Using a system of four points for a first place, three points for second, two points for third and one point for fourth)This season's Premier League predictions were unusual for having only four teams feature - the same ones who had finished in the real top four in 2024-25.

The last time there such little variation from our pundits was before the 2015-16 season, when 29/30 pundits went with the same four teams - and let's just say everyone got a BIG shock that year. Manchester United and Villa qualify as the surprise packages this year, although not quite on the same scale. Some context is needed, however.

The story has become one of the most prominent items on the global agenda.