Bitcoin rally now depends on one Fed document coming Wednesday

Here is the latest from the digital-asset markets: The Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p. ET, and the release will either validate Bitcoin's week-long recovery or pull out its foundation. Traders bought the rebound on a single macro assumption: a weakening US labor market limits how long the central bank can stay hawkish.

The minutes, the first full account of internal deliberations under Chair Kevin Warsh, will show whether officials shared that concern in mid-June, weeks before the jobs data that set the rally in motion. The move riding on the answer is substantial. Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, up almost 11% from the 21-month low below $58,000 it set on July 1, and swung more than $3,400 between $61,250 and $64,659 on Monday.

Market Dynamics

The recovery began with Thursday's US jobs report, which showed employers added 57,000 positions in June, roughly half of what economists expected. Softer labor data pushed traders to trim bets on another rate hike, and Bitcoin climbed alongside gold and equities in what Barron's described as a US rates repricing. The Bitcoin market repriced the Fed before seeing the Fed's reasoning The June meeting gave crypto little to work with at the time.

Officials held rates at 3. 75%, stripped earlier hints that cuts could come soon, and shifted the median 2026 projection toward at least one additional hike. Bitcoin spent the following two weeks grinding toward its low as markets priced tighter policy for longer.

However, the jobs report changed that. Beyond the headline miss, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised April and May payrolls down by a combined 74,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate's dip to 4. 2% came only because roughly 720,000 people left the labor force, pulling participation down to 61.

Market Impact

Traders responded by pushing hike expectations later: CME FedWatch pricing now implies about a 76% chance the Fed holds at its July 28-29 meeting, with roughly 40% odds of an increase by December. Chart showing the target rate probabilities for the July 29 Fed meeting on July 7, 2026 (Source: CME FedWatch) If the Wednesday minutes show officials already flagging labor-market softness, credit strain, or the risk of overtightening, the market's dovish shift will gain support, and the recovery will have a foundation. If the discussion centered on persistent inflation and the conditions for another hike, which is how Warsh framed the decision publicly, then the rally loses its main pillar.

Bitcoin has already priced meaningful relief, so a document that falls short of the market's dovish hopes would be enough to pressure the price. The bar for disappointment is low because the bounce came first. One inflow day and 49,000 BTC of fresh exchange supply We see the same kind of fragility from the ETF side of the rally as well.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $223 million on Thursday, their largest daily inflow since May, ending a 10-day withdrawal streak that had drained $2. 73 billion from the funds. The single session stopped the bleeding without reversing it: the products have shed nearly $8.

Crypto markets are watching this development closely as investors weigh its potential impact on prices.