Tories pick themselves up off the floor with unexpected Scottish by-election win

Here is the latest breaking news from around the world: Tories pick themselves up off the floor with unexpected Scottish by-election win17 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleParis GourtsoyannisBBC Scotland Westminster correspondentPA MediaKemi Badenoch made several visits to Aberdeen during the campaignConservative leader Kemi Badenoch became a frequent flyer in the final weeks of the by-election campaign in Aberdeen South. She visited the city three times for photo opportunities with her Scottish counterpart Russell Findlay. She was back at Aberdeen Airport again today as she arrived to celebrate an unexpected victory over the SNP.

Badenoch has boosted her own personal approval rating in recent months, but the Tories as a party remain stranded behind Reform UK in the polls. In terms of election results, the direction of travel has continued to be downward for the Conservatives - as confirmed in the Scottish Parliament and English local elections last month. That was until today, and that win in Aberdeen South.

The Details

The Conservatives threw everything they had at this seat and, in the end, their candidate Douglas Lumsden won comfortably. And the party may take as much encouragement from the fact they came second, less than 200 votes ahead of Reform, in the other Scottish by-election in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. The SNP won that one by a decent margin, but the increase in the Tory vote is a sign of effective campaign organisation from a party that should still be picking itself off the floor.

Looking ahead to the next general election, it looks like a big part of the battle will be convincing voters that they want to get rid of a Labour MP, and that the Tories are a better bet than Reform. The Tories tested that tactical voting strategy against the SNP in these by-elections and will be pleased with the results. There were specific factors at play in Aberdeen South that might not be repeated elsewhere.

Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell's guilty plea to embezzlement charges is fresh in people's minds. He is due to be sentenced next week. The ongoing fallout for the nationalists has not helped the party's brand.

What Experts Say

PA MediaDouglas Lumsden took the Aberdeen South seat from the SNPIn addition, Aberdeen is the heart of the North Sea oil and gas industry. The Conservative campaign was built around the job losses the city is suffering with the steady decline of offshore drilling. It targeted Labour and the SNP over their continued support for the net zero agenda.

That message won't translate everywhere across the UK - and with the SNP first minister and both leading Labour leadership contenders suggesting it may be time for more North Sea oil and gas extraction, other parties are catching up. It's a debate Reform UK has tried to own as well, but there was a sense that the party's attention was focused on the by-election in Makerfield rather than those in Scotland. Where energy policy meets the cost of living, it does seem this is an issue where the Tories have the public's attention.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.