Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño grows

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño growsImage source, GettyBySimon King Lead Weather PresenterPublished17 minutes agoNew forecasts show increasing confidence that the developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean could be one of the strongest on record with warnings of record global temperatures and huge humanitarian impacts. Parts of the Pacific have been warming rapidly with data this week showing sea surface temperatures around 0. 5C above normal - one threshold used to suggest the onset of El Niño, a natural warming of the Pacific.

It is expected to strengthen over the next few months, peaking potentially as a very strong - or so-called super El Niño - in the autumn. Scientists are concerned about the consequences it could have on global weather patterns, including the likelihood of 2027 being the warmest year on record. In their latest outlook, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest El Niño will begin within the month.

The Details

They have increased the confidence to a two-in-three chance that it will be strong or even very strong by this winter. The rate of warming seen in the tropical Pacific over the last few weeks has been rapid. Nathanial Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA described it as a "rare occurrence" should it continue at the current pace - going from the La Niña (a similar cooling pattern) we saw in winter to a potentially strong El Niño, within a year.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia also forecasts El Niño using a slightly stricter criteria where sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific must exceed 0. They also look for indications that the trade winds in the western Pacific have reversed; signalling that the warming ocean is beginning to influence the atmosphere. Spring forecasts of El Niño have historically been quite poor, but forecasters have been much more confident than normal this year.

Image source, WeatherImage caption, Graph shows the change in temperature at a specific location over time used to determine the onset of El Niño. The lines represent an average of a range of varying models from each forecaster. Source: BoM/EC/NOAAWhat is a strong El Niño?

What Experts Say

While El Niño forms across the tropical Pacific, forecasters look at one region in particular called the Niño3. 4, monitoring a three-monthly average of the sea surface temperature compared to the long-term average. A strong or 'super El Nińo' is when that goes above 1.

Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (EC), NOAA and BoM are all pretty much aligned in their outcomes. In the latest prediction from the EC, more than half of their forecast models suggest a temperature of over 2. 5C would be a "historically strong event," said Johnson.

BoM forecasts are also confidently showing the possibility of a very strong El Niño to develop later this year.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.