Can Starmer survive as PM? Seven scenarios for what might happen next

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. Can Starmer survive as PM? Seven scenarios for what might happen nextJust now Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleNick Eardley ,Political correspondent ,Brian Wheeler ,Politics reporterandDamian Grammaticas ,Political correspondentPA MediaSir Keir Starmer's premiership has never looked more vulnerable as growing numbers of his own MPs call on him to stand down after a disastrous set of election results. The prime minister has vowed to fight on, even suggesting he could serve two terms, but the choice could very soon be taken out of his hands.

It is a fast moving and volatile situation, but here are some scenarios on how things might play out in the coming days and weeks. MP Catherine West triggers a leadership contestThe Labour backbencher Catherine West surprised everyone on Saturday by announcing that she was prepared to challenge Sir Keir for the party leadership. She's never had a high profile in the party.

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But Sir Keir gave her a junior ministerial job in the Foreign Office after Labour's election win in 2024. He sacked her when he reshuffled his government last year. She has no ambitions to take on the top job herself, but said she had grown frustrated with the apparent reluctance of cabinet members who have been quietly lining up their own bids to go over the top after Thursday's battering at the polls.

She would need to get the backing of 20% of the Parliamentary party - 81 MPs - to kick off a leadership contest. So far more than 30 Labour MPs have called for Sir Keir to go but not all of them are certain to back West, as they may feel now is not the right time for a contest. If West succeeds, the ball is then in the court of Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner or any other Labour heavyweight with eyes on Number 10.

Streeting backed the prime minister on Friday, but did not explicitly rule out standing in any contest. Rayner has not commented so far this weekend. West falls just short of the numbers neededIf West gets 60 or 70 MPs backing a leadership contest it might be enough to flush out a challenge from the likes of Streeting or Rayner - convincing them there is appetite among the Parliamentary Labour Party for a change.

It could also put Sir Keir on notice that the party is ready to oust him when they or other leading figures do finally make a move. Another factor could be cabinet resignations, which as we saw with the previous Conservative government, can be a precursor to a prime minister being forced to stand down. We have a problem and have to move quickly, says Labour MP who's willing to challenge Starmer'We need to move quickly,' says Labour MP seeking to challenge PMElection results at a glanceWest gets few backers and strengthens Starmer's position, for nowIf West's leadership challenge falls flat on its face, it is likely to shore up Sir Keir's position, in the short term at least.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.