Chris Mason: Inside the shadow contest to be our next prime minister

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. Chris Mason: Inside the shadow contest to be our next prime minister6 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleChris MasonPolitical editorReuters/ PALeft to right: Andy Burnham, Sir Keir Starmer and Wes StreetingIt is now likely, perhaps highly likely, that we will have another new prime minister, possibly within weeks, or perhaps within months. Things are considerably less fraught, noisy and wildly unpredictable than they were last week. However the politics that will shape who is most likely to replace Sir Keir Starmer is playing out before us.

But hang on a minute. As supporters of the prime minister like to point out, there has been no formal challenge to him yet, and he is making clear, for now at least, that he is getting on with the job. Some Labour MPs are exasperated that he hasn't set out a timetable for his departure.

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Others ponder that it might be helpful to Andy Burnham, in his forthcoming by-election contest in Makerfield, if the prime minister hasn't announced a plan to step down, so Burnham can make the argument that a win for him would ensure Starmer was forced to. And there is another curiosity here: not only is this a shadow contest rather than a formal one, but Burnham has that by-election to win while his potential rival, the now former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not. It means there is an asymmetry to the audiences they are currently talking to.

For Burnham, there is a geographical and demographic focus to his immediate pitch: the collection of towns and villages near Wigan, St Helens and Leigh in the north west of England that make up the Makerfield constituency. For Streeting, the audience is rather different: Labour MPs and Labour Party members whom he needs to convince if there is a contest next month. Streeting, now a backbencher, is unshackled from the obligations of front bench collective responsibility for the first time in years.

This means he is able to speak freely in public, and chose to set out over the weekend that he believed Brexit was a "catastrophic mistake" and that he hoped, one day, the UK would rejoin the European Union. Labour leadership jostling puts Brexit back under political spotlightBurnham pledges not to 're-run' Brexit argumentsHow Rayner, Streeting and Burnham weakened PM in 12 hours of political dramaHow would a Labour leadership contest work? Burnham's view isn't wildly different – he said last autumn, for instance, that he hoped the UK would sign up to the EU again in his lifetime.

But the mayor of Greater Manchester has rather changed his emphasis, saying talking now about rejoining the bloc is "the last thing we should do". Given Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and heavily backed Reform UK at the local elections, perhaps this is no surprise. He says his emphasis now also reflects his desire to try to bring people together – he said over the weekend he entirely understood why many people had been drawn towards Reform UK.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.