Economists Said AI Wouldn’t Take Jobs—Some Now Admit They Got It Wrong

Piyasa gündeminde öne çıkan haber: Economists Said AI Wouldn’t Take Jobs—Some Now Admit They Got It Wrong Price data by News Artificial Intelligence Economists Said AI Wouldn’t Take Jobs—Some Now Admit They Got It Wrong A new multi-university study surveyed 69 economists, 52 AI experts, and 38 superforecasters. All three groups agree: faster AI means fewer jobs. By Jose Antonio Lanz Edited by Guillermo Jimenez Apr 11, 2026 Apr 11, 2026 3 min read AI and job loss.

Image: Shutterstock Create an account to save your articles. Add on Google Add as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. In brief A major multi-university study finds faster AI means fewer people working.

Piyasa Dinamikleri

Economists now see real job losses alongside strong economic growth. The debate has shifted to whether AI will replace the need for new jobs entirely. For years, economists were the professionals most likely to tell you to calm down about any fear related to technology.

ATMs didn’t replace cashiers, Excel didn’t replace bookkeepers and robotic vacuums didn’t replace maids. "Augment, not replace" was the consensus. A new paper from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Forecasting Research Institute, Yale, Stanford, and the University of Pennsylvania surveyed 69 economists, 52 AI specialists, and 38 superforecasters about how AI will reshape the U.

All three groups agree on one thing: Faster AI progress means lower labor force participation. That's the polite way to say “fewer people working. ” The numbers are staggering.

Piyasalara Etkisi

Under what the researchers call the "rapid" scenario—where AI surpasses human performance across most cognitive and physical tasks by 2030—economists forecast the U. labor force participation rate dropping from its current 62% to 54% by 2050. About half of that drop, roughly 10 million lost jobs, would be directly attributable to AI rather than demographics or other trends.

The rapid scenario isn't science fiction. It's the world where AI can negotiate book contracts, assist in any factory or home, and replace all freelance software engineers, paralegals, and customer service agents. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has already warned that the disruption is accelerating faster than most expect—and the study's rapid scenario effectively validates that framing.

GDP tells the other half of the story. Under the same rapid scenario, economists project annual GDP growth hitting 3. 5% by 2045-2049—approaching post-WWII boom levels.

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