Second Bitcoin ETF issuer predicts BTC hitting $1M – but cuts timeline to within the next US Presidential term

A notable development has hit the crypto markets. Matthew Sigel of VanEck said Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the next US Presidential term. That puts a 1,150% increase as a 2031 target inside a market that is still trying to prove it can hold the $80,000 area. 's Bitcoin page shows BTC near $80,200 on May 9, with a market capitalization near $1.

61 trillion and an all-time high of $126,198 set on Oct. A move to $200,000, another price target being batted around lately, would require Bitcoin to rise roughly 2. 5 times from that level.

Market Dynamics

A move to $1 million would require roughly 12. Related Reading Bitcoin’s $150,000 forecast slash proves the institutional “sure thing” is actually a high-stakes gamble for 2026 Yet, new data shows $50 billion in ETF inflows could fundamentally break the four-year cycle and trap retail bears. Jan 23, 2026 Liam 'Akiba' Wright Bitcoin has produced larger percentage moves before, but the current forecast cycle now rests on a market question: whether the latest institutional demand is strong enough to absorb coins being sold into the rebound.

Bitcoin price chart showing projected Bitcoin cycle highs and pullbacks across multiple halving periods. Why seven-figure math is back The VanEck call lands alongside other seven-figure frameworks. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan laid out a formal $1 million model in March, arguing that Bitcoin can reach seven figures by gaining share as the store-of-value market expands.

In his model, the market grows to about $121 trillion over 10 years, and Bitcoin reaches $1 million if it captures about 17% of the total. That is a different time horizon from Sigel's reported five-year view, but the logic overlaps. Both depend less on a single trading catalyst and more on Bitcoin becoming a larger part of how institutions, advisers, sovereign entities, and younger investors think about long-term savings outside the fiat banking system.

Market Impact

VanEck's own research desk had already published a longer-range version of that argument. In a 2024 Bitcoin 2050 scenario, the firm modeled a possible $2. 9 million Bitcoin price by 2050 if BTC becomes a meaningful medium of exchange and reserve asset.

That report used assumptions around trade settlement, reserve holdings, and Bitcoin scaling infrastructure. The newly reported call is more immediate, but it comes from the same broad research posture: Bitcoin as a macro asset whose valuation depends on adoption beyond crypto-native buyers. If the thesis is only a trading call, the next resistance level carries most of the weight.

If the thesis is that adoption math, ETF flows, portfolio allocation, sovereign reserve behavior, and the size of the global store-of-value market carry more weight than a single weekly candle. The near-term price frame is less clean. Fundstrat's Tom Lee's $200,000 to $250,000 Bitcoin range for 2026 should also be part of the conversation.

Crypto markets are watching this development closely as investors weigh its potential impact on prices.