The crypto IPO wave has one big problem: Bitcoin is still in charge

A notable development has hit the crypto markets. After Circle and Bullish delivered blockbuster listings in 2025, crypto exchanges rushed toward public markets with a familiar promise: the industry is finally mature enough for Wall Street. However, the latest research from Kaiko shows that it's not as simple as that. The crypto exchange IPO wave was supposed to prove that the crypto industry had graduated from speculative boomtown to legitimate financial infrastructure.

These companies hired Wall Street bankers, appointed compliance chiefs, and refined their pitch decks to emphasize regulated platforms, recurring institutional flows, and revenue streams diversified enough to survive a bear market. But Kaiko's analysis found that exchange trading activity, investor appetite, and public-market valuations all remain tethered to Bitcoin price in ways most of these exchanges try to obscure. When Bitcoin rallies, trading volume surges, we see an increase in listings, and Wall Street rewards the sector generously.

Market Dynamics

When Bitcoin stalls or reverses, however, exchange revenue expectations compress fast, and the infrastructure narrative loses its audience. The central question for anyone buying into crypto IPOs in 2026 is whether they can generate durable earnings when Bitcoin isn't cooperating. The year the IPO window reopened To understand why exchanges are scrambling to go public now, it helps to understand how good 2025 looked from a distance.

Circle priced an upsized IPO at $31 per share in June 2025, raising $1. 05 billion and valuing the stablecoin issuer at roughly $8 billion on a fully diluted basis. Its shares surged on their NYSE debut, and the reception sent an unambiguous signal: institutional investors had an appetite for regulated crypto exposure and weren't particularly sensitive to valuation.

Bullish followed in August, pricing above range at $37 per share, raising more than $1. 1 billion, and debuting at a total valuation of nearly $13. Bankers had a genuine pitch to deliver: regulation was improving, institutional participation was deepening, and crypto companies were no longer the fringe startups that had defined the previous cycle .

Market Impact

The enthusiasm was real, and so were the numbers behind it. What the boom obscured, though, was a structural question that IPO markets tend to defer until earnings season makes it unavoidable: can an exchange sustain its revenue when the underlying asset that drives all of its trading activity decides to go quiet? Gemini gave us an answer to that question, and it proved to be quite an uncomfortable one.

In September 2025, Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss lifted Gemini's IPO price range and targeted a valuation of up to $3. 08 billion, reflecting genuine investor demand during the crypto rally. By early 2026, a shareholder lawsuit emerged alleging investors were misled around the IPO period: the company had announced a 25% workforce reduction, market exits, and a projected significant annual loss, with the stock down more than 75% from its $28 IPO price.

As reported at the time of filing, Gemini had already disclosed a $282. 5 million net loss in the first half of 2025 alone. It showed how quickly a company can go from an oversubscribed listing to a Bitcoin-cycle casualty when sentiment reverses.

Crypto markets are watching this development closely as investors weigh its potential impact on prices.