The race to replace Starmer is on - but he still faces a momentous choice

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. The race to replace Starmer is on - but he still faces a momentous choiceJust now Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleLaura KuenssbergSunday with Laura KuenssbergBBC"Every morning when he wakes up, it's been the same two questions. Does Wes have the numbers? And does Andy have a seat?

"An ally of the prime minister tells me for several months those have been No 10's preoccupations. The answer to the first is still disputed - Wes Streeting's team says "Yes". Team Starmer says "No way".

The Details

But it's become academic because Streeting has quit government to prepare for a run at the top job. And then, a frenzied No 10 discovered on Thursday morning that Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, had found an MP willing to give up their seat so he can take a crack at it, the start of his long-anticipated attempt to make it to No 10. It might not be official, but the contest to replace the prime minister is on.

You might agree with one cabinet minister who told me "the public are pretty horrified" that Labour is tumbling into replacing its leader. Or you might share the view of another minister who reckons the public's message from the ballot boxes last week "just had to be respected". In a messy and angry way, Labour's tribes have reached a decision - that it's about time a contest to replace Sir Keir Starmer got under way.

But there are plenty of choices that still face him - decisions that affect us all, and one vital one that he alone must make. If everything goes according to the challengers' plan, a leadership contest seems likely over the summer, and a new leader and prime minister by the party conference in late September. That means that even if Starmer is on his way out, he will still have a chunk of time in office.

What Experts Say

Note that this timetable is miles away from being confirmed. There is already a debate at the top levels of Labour over whether there will be a contest at all. If Burnham wins the by-election, one minister tells me he and Streeting should find an "accommodation" to avoid what could be a "catastrophic" leadership contest.

Another senior figure predicts no-one would even stand against Burnham because he has so much momentum, "he'll be carried south for a coronation". That could mean a new resident in No 10 more quickly. It's fair to say this view is not universal - others in government are furious with Burnham, and believe strongly there has to be a contest so the party can thrash out its differences.

ReutersBut nor can it be said enough that Andy Burnham might not be successful in his bid to become an MP again. Reform will throw everything they have at winning the Makerfield seat to stop him in his tracks. They are flush with cash and still leading in the polls.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.