UK borrowing costs jump amid uncertainty over PM's future

An important development from the financial markets: UK borrowing costs jump amid uncertainty over PM's future9 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on GoogleMichael RaceBusiness reporterGetty ImagesGovernment borrowing costs jumped on Tuesday amid uncertainty over the future of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. The effective interest rate on borrowing over 10 years rose to 5. 13%, near levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Financial markets have been on edge due to fears that the Iran war will push up inflation and lead to interest rate hikes, but the possibility of a change of leadership in the UK and perceived risk of looser public spending has unsettled some investors. More than 75 Labour MPs have called for Sir Keir to resign following poor election results last week, but the PM has told his cabinet to "get on with governing". "The Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered," he told his senior colleagues, before some voiced support for him to continue in post.

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While all governments have seen borrowing costs rise since the Iran war, the UK has experienced elevated rates compared to countries with economies similar in size. Investors have watched the speculation surrounding Sir Keir's future closely, with analysts suggesting there is a risk that potential replacements might loosen public spending and increase borrowing by the government. The prime minister and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have consistently committed to "iron clad" rules on borrowing in a bid to reassure markets their economic plans are credible.

Starmer allies voice support as they leave cabinet meeting after PM says he will 'get on with governing'Oil price predicted to remain above $100 for rest of yearAnalysts at Capital Economics said they believed UK borrowing costs would rise and the pound would weaken if there was a change at the top of the Labour party. "The UK's already fragile fiscal position means that investors will be on edge for any signs of fiscal loosening," they said. "The likely replacements for Starmer/Reeves would probably not be as fiscally disciplined.

"They suggested all frontrunners to potentially challenge Sir Keir - Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting - would "probably raise public spending". Governments get most of their income from taxes, but often want to spend more money than taxes raise. To cover that gap, they borrow money from investors and issue something called a bond or gilt, which is a loan the government promises to pay back at the end of an agreed time.

But a major area investors seek when lending governments money is a degree of certainty and confidence that they will get a return. On Tuesday, borrowing costs - as shown by the bond yield, or interest rate - across two, five, 10 and 30-year terms were all higher as the prime minister's future was in peril. The yield on 30-year bonds hit 5.

Financial markets are tracking the development closely as investors assess the likely impact.