Why Labour's London squeeze exposes a fragmented modern British politics

Key developments are emerging from the global stage. Why Labour's London squeeze exposes a fragmented modern British politics 19 minutes ago Share Save Add as preferred on Google Nick Robinson Today programme presenter "Do you know the result which is keeping them awake in Number 10? ," a Cabinet minister recently asked me. The answer was London.

The reason Sir Keir Starmer and his team are waiting so nervously for the results of next week's council elections in London is that it represents Labour's new heartland. One in seven Labour MPs represents constituencies in the capital. The prime minister is a London member of parliament, as is his deputy, David Lammy, as well as the man who wants Starmer's job, Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

The Details

The Secretary State for Housing, Steve Reed, completes the quartet of powerful London MPs in the Cabinet. A significant percentage of the party's activists, and the members who choose the party's leaders, live in the capital. Losses here will hurt Labour's core.

Getty Images One in seven Labour MPs represents constituencies in the capital Of course, politicians from all sides are known to make dramatic claims in the run-up to elections - sometimes out of fear, and sometimes to manage expectations. But this year, virtually everyone expects serious losses for Labour in London. The pollster YouGov predicts it could be Labour's worst result in the capital for almost 50 years.

And those losses would come from a squeeze from both sides of politics. Labour is under attack from the Greens in London's progressive inner boroughs; and from Reform in the traditionally more socially conservative outer ring. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats expect to gain some councils too.

What Experts Say

The veteran academic of London's politics, Tony Travers, a politics professor at the London School of Economics, says the capital may be about to witness a "political earthquake". It's a frightening prospect for Labour's leaders. And it doesn't just matter for London.

It could supercharge the debate currently raging over whether Sir Keir should be replaced as prime minister. It also provides an insight into the dilemma Labour faces about which direction to take, and a warning of the fate that might await the party at the next general election. Labour's place in London It's all so different to the night which sealed London's place as the new power base of the modern Labour party.

Labour faced a grim day on 6 May 2010: the party lost its parliamentary majority, with big swings against it in the north, south, and Wales. But in a corner of inner east London, it was a different story. In both constituencies in the borough of Hackney, just five miles from Westminster, the party actually increased its majority, to the surprise of those gathered at Hackney Town Hall to watch the result.

The development has drawn wide international attention, with diplomatic circles watching closely.